How dangerous has swine flu proved to be?

Neil Churchill - Chief Executive

How dangerous has swine flu proved to be? Here is an authoritative source, reported in the British Medical Journal.

Some points for us to note:

Fifteen of the people who died had asthma. For three of them, it was the only underlying health condition they had. That means most but not all deaths have occurred in people with co-morbidities.

And of those who died, only a quarter had received antiviral drugs within the first 48 hours of having symptoms. So the antivirals do seem to offer some protection.

As I reported elsewhere, people with asthma make up over 20% of intensive care cases for swine flu in hospitals. So although popular concern with swine flu is waning, people with asthma are right to view it with care.

BMJ table

Source: British Medical Journal website (bmj.com)

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woody-som

31 December 09
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Well like all the previous flu hypes, this one has turned out to be another over reaction. It turns out to behave just like normal seasonal flu http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/SwineFlu/tb/17742 but it does appear to be worse for children than usual, http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/SwineFlu/17743 even back in June the ERJ had data http://tinyurl.com/krsuqg to suggest that underlying conditions such as Diabetes and obesity were the most frequently identified underlying conditions (Figure 5) in the report.

ClaireOB

30 December 09
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The Boston Globe reports today on the results of the Massachussets Public Health Dept's surveillance of H1N1 hospitalisations: "...Now, a review of disease surveillance records by Massachusetts health authorities has found that one chronic condition is far more common than any other among patients hospitalized with H1N1 infections: asthma. The persistent respiratory ailment, which has become strikingly more prevalent in recent decades, was present in 31 percent of swine flu patients who entered Massachusetts hospitals already suffering from longstanding health problems. By comparison, 6 percent of those swine flu patients had heart problems, and 6 percent had kidney disease. .." http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2009/12/30/severe_h1n1_cases_and_asthma_are_linked/ © Copyright 2009 Globe Newspaper Company.